Pre-election pendulum for the 2022 Australian federal election
2022 Australian federal election |
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National results |
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State and territory results |
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The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1]
This Mackerras pendulum includes new notional margin estimates in Victoria and Western Australia due to boundary redistributions.[2][3] Members in italics have declared they will not contest their seats at the election, or have lost their party's preselection.
Government seats (74) | ||||
Marginal | ||||
Bass | Tas | Bridget Archer | LIB | 0.4 |
Chisholm | Vic | Gladys Liu | LIB | 0.5 |
Wentworth | NSW | Dave Sharma | LIB vs. IND | 1.3 |
Boothby | SA | Nicolle Flint | LIB | 1.4 |
Braddon | Tas | Gavin Pearce | LIB | 3.1 |
Reid | NSW | Fiona Martin | LIB | 3.2 |
Longman | Qld | Terry Young | LNP | 3.3 |
Swan | WA | Steve Irons | LIB | 3.3 |
Higgins | Vic | Katie Allen | LIB | 3.7 |
Leichhardt | Qld | Warren Entsch | LNP | 4.2 |
Robertson | NSW | Lucy Wicks | LIB | 4.2 |
Casey | Vic | Tony Smith | LIB | 4.6 |
Dickson | Qld | Peter Dutton | LNP | 4.6 |
Deakin | Vic | Michael Sukkar | LIB | 4.7 |
Brisbane | Qld | Trevor Evans | LNP | 4.9 |
Lindsay | NSW | Melissa McIntosh | LIB | 5.0 |
Pearce | WA | Christian Porter | LIB | 5.2 |
La Trobe | Vic | Jason Wood | LIB | 5.5 |
Flinders | Vic | Greg Hunt | LIB | 5.6 |
Kooyong | Vic | Josh Frydenberg | LIB vs. GRN | 5.6 |
Hasluck | WA | Ken Wyatt | LIB | 5.8 |
Fairly safe | ||||
Ryan | Qld | Julian Simmonds | LNP | 6.0 |
Banks | NSW | David Coleman | LIB | 6.3 |
Cowper | NSW | Pat Conaghan | NAT vs. IND | 6.8 |
Sturt | SA | James Stevens | LIB | 6.9 |
Monash | Vic | Russell Broadbent | LIB | 6.9 |
Bennelong | NSW | John Alexander | LIB | 6.9 |
Menzies | Vic | Kevin Andrews | LIB | 7.0 |
Bonner | Qld | Ross Vasta | LNP | 7.4 |
Goldstein | Vic | Tim Wilson | LIB | 7.8 |
Herbert | Qld | Phillip Thompson | LIB | 8.4 |
Petrie | Qld | Luke Howarth | LNP | 8.4 |
Forde | Qld | Bert Van Manen | LNP | 8.6 |
Flynn | Qld | Ken O'Dowd | LNP | 8.7 |
North Sydney | NSW | Trent Zimmerman | LIB | 9.3 |
Page | NSW | Kevin Hogan | NAT | 9.4 |
Tangney | WA | Ben Morton | LIB | 9.5 |
Safe | ||||
Aston | Vic | Alan Tudge | LIB | 10.1 |
Wannon | Vic | Dan Tehan | LIB | 10.2 |
Bowman | Qld | Andrew Laming | LNP | 10.2 |
Farrer | NSW | Sussan Ley | LIB vs. IND | 10.9 |
Canning | WA | Andrew Hastie | LIB | 11.6 |
Moore | WA | Ian Goodenough | LIB | 11.6 |
McPherson | Qld | Karen Andrews | LNP | 12.2 |
Capricornia | Qld | Michelle Landry | LNP | 12.4 |
Fisher | Qld | Andrew Wallace | LNP | 12.7 |
Hume | NSW | Angus Taylor | LIB | 13.0 |
Wide Bay | Qld | Llew O'Brien | LNP | 13.1 |
Mackellar | NSW | Jason Falinski | LIB | 13.2 |
Calare | NSW | Andrew Gee | NAT | 13.3 |
Grey | SA | Rowan Ramsey | LIB | 13.3 |
Fairfax | Qld | Ted O'Brien | LNP | 13.4 |
Durack | WA | Melissa Price | LIB | 13.5 |
Curtin | WA | Celia Hammond | LIB | 14.0 |
Fadden | Qld | Stuart Robert | LNP | 14.2 |
New England | NSW | Barnaby Joyce | NAT vs. IND | 14.4 |
Hinkler | Qld | Keith Pitt | LNP | 14.5 |
Forrest | WA | Nola Marino | LIB | 14.6 |
Wright | Qld | Scott Buchholz | LNP | 14.6 |
Lyne | NSW | David Gillespie | NAT | 15.2 |
Moncrieff | Qld | Angie Bell | LNP | 15.4 |
O'Connor | WA | Rick Wilson | LIB | 15.4 |
Berowra | NSW | Julian Leeser | LIB | 15.6 |
Mallee | Vic | Anne Webster | NAT | 15.7 |
Bradfield | NSW | Paul Fletcher | LIB | 16.6 |
Gippsland | Vic | Darren Chester | NAT | 16.7 |
Parkes | NSW | Mark Coulton | NAT | 16.9 |
Groom | Qld | Garth Hamilton | LNP (b/e) | 17.2 |
Very safe | ||||
Mitchell | NSW | Alex Hawke | LIB | 18.6 |
Barker | SA | Tony Pasin | LIB | 18.9 |
Cook | NSW | Scott Morrison | LIB | 19.0 |
Riverina | NSW | Michael McCormack | NAT | 19.5 |
Nicholls | Vic | Damian Drum | NAT | 20.0 |
Maranoa | Qld | David Littleproud | LNP vs PHON | 22.5 |
Opposition seats (69) | ||||
Marginal | ||||
Macquarie | NSW | Susan Templeman | ALP | 0.2 |
Eden-Monaro | NSW | Kristy McBain | ALP (b/e) | 0.4 |
Lilley | Qld | Anika Wells | ALP | 0.6 |
Cowan | WA | Anne Aly | ALP | 0.9 |
Corangamite | Vic | Libby Coker | ALP | 1.0 |
Blair | Qld | Shayne Neumann | ALP | 1.2 |
Dobell | NSW | Emma McBride | ALP | 1.5 |
Moreton | Qld | Graham Perrett | ALP | 1.9 |
Gilmore | NSW | Fiona Phillips | ALP | 2.6 |
Dunkley | Vic | Peta Murphy | ALP | 2.7 |
Greenway | NSW | Michelle Rowland | ALP | 2.8 |
Griffith | Qld | Terri Butler | ALP | 2.9 |
Hunter | NSW | Joel Fitzgibbon | ALP | 3.0 |
Solomon | NT | Luke Gosling | ALP | 3.1 |
Perth | WA | Patrick Gorman | ALP | 3.2 |
Parramatta | NSW | Julie Owens | ALP | 3.5 |
Richmond | NSW | Justine Elliot | ALP | 4.1 |
Shortland | NSW | Pat Conroy | ALP | 4.4 |
Paterson | NSW | Meryl Swanson | ALP | 5.0 |
Lyons | Tas | Brian Mitchell | ALP | 5.2 |
McEwen | Vic | Rob Mitchell | ALP | 5.3 |
Burt | WA | Matt Keogh | ALP | 5.4 |
Lingiari | NT | Warren Snowdon | ALP | 5.5 |
Werriwa | NSW | Anne Stanley | ALP | 5.5 |
Jagajaga | Vic | Kate Thwaites | ALP | 5.9 |
Fairly safe | ||||
Macnamara | Vic | Josh Burns | ALP | 6.1 |
Isaacs | Vic | Mark Dreyfus | ALP | 6.4 |
Oxley | Qld | Milton Dick | ALP | 6.4 |
Rankin | Qld | Jim Chalmers | ALP | 6.4 |
Hindmarsh | SA | Mark Butler | ALP | 6.5 |
McMahon | NSW | Chris Bowen | ALP | 6.6 |
Brand | WA | Madeleine King | ALP | 6.7 |
Fremantle | WA | Josh Wilson | ALP | 6.9 |
Bruce | Vic | Julian Hill | ALP | 7.3 |
Bean | ACT | David Smith | ALP | 7.5 |
Adelaide | SA | Steve Georganas | ALP | 8.2 |
Wills | Vic | Peter Khalil | ALP vs. GRN | 8.2 |
Macarthur | NSW | Mike Freelander | ALP | 8.4 |
Kingsford Smith | NSW | Matt Thistlethwaite | ALP | 8.8 |
Holt | Vic | Anthony Byrne | ALP | 8.9 |
Bendigo | Vic | Lisa Chesters | ALP | 8.9 |
Barton | NSW | Linda Burney | ALP | 9.4 |
Makin | SA | Tony Zappia | ALP | 9.7 |
Safe | ||||
Hawke | Vic | new seat | ALP | 10.2 |
Ballarat | Vic | Catherine King | ALP | 10.3 |
Maribyrnong | Vic | Bill Shorten | ALP | 10.3 |
Corio | Vic | Richard Marles | ALP | 10.3 |
Fenner | ACT | Andrew Leigh | ALP | 10.6 |
Whitlam | NSW | Stephen Jones | ALP | 10.9 |
Hotham | Vic | Clare O'Neil | ALP | 11.2 |
Kingston | SA | Amanda Rishworth | ALP | 11.9 |
Franklin | Tas | Julie Collins | ALP | 12.2 |
Chifley | NSW | Ed Husic | ALP | 12.4 |
Lalor | Vic | Joanne Ryan | ALP | 12.4 |
Gellibrand | Vic | Tim Watts | ALP | 13.0 |
Cunningham | NSW | Sharon Bird | ALP | 13.4 |
Watson | NSW | Tony Burke | ALP | 13.5 |
Newcastle | NSW | Sharon Claydon | ALP | 13.8 |
Fowler | NSW | Chris Hayes | ALP | 14.0 |
Spence | SA | Nick Champion | ALP | 14.1 |
Gorton | Vic | Brendan O'Connor | ALP | 14.3 |
Cooper | Vic | Ged Kearney | ALP vs. GRN | 14.6 |
Blaxland | NSW | Jason Clare | ALP | 14.7 |
Grayndler | NSW | Anthony Albanese | ALP vs. GRN | 16.3 |
Canberra | ACT | Alicia Payne | ALP | 17.1 |
Very safe | ||||
Fraser | Vic | Daniel Mulino | ALP | 18.1 |
Sydney | NSW | Tanya Plibersek | ALP | 18.7 |
Calwell | Vic | Maria Vamvakinou | ALP | 19.6 |
Scullin | Vic | Andrew Giles | ALP | 21.7 |
Crossbench seats (8) | ||||
Marginal | ||||
Indi | Vic | Helen Haines | IND vs. LIB | 1.4 |
Mayo | SA | Rebekha Sharkie | CA vs. LIB | 5.1 |
Fairly safe | ||||
Warringah | NSW | Zali Steggall | IND vs. LIB | 7.2 |
Hughes | NSW | Craig Kelly | LIB | 9.9 |
Safe | ||||
Kennedy | Qld | Bob Katter | KAP vs. LNP | 13.3 |
Dawson | Qld | George Christensen | LNP | 14.6 |
Very safe | ||||
Melbourne | Vic | Adam Bandt | GRN vs. LIB | 21.8 |
Clark | Tas | Andrew Wilkie | IND vs. ALP | 22.1 |
References
- ^ "Divisional classifications". Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. 11 July 2019. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
- ^ Green, Antony (2 August 2021). "2022 Federal Electoral Pendulum". Antony Green's Election. Archived from the original on 3 August 2021. Retrieved 3 August 2021.
- ^ "Pendulum". Australian Broadcasting Corporation News. Retrieved 7 May 2022.